NFL Week 1 Pick’em

Intro

The NFL is back. Fantasy Football teams are drafted. The Lions are ready to make a Super Bowl run. Fall is back baby. Now NFL Redzone selling out to Disney and adding commercials is not great. Never have I seen a company ruin things I love quite like Disney does. Its like Satan literally works there. Its fucking bullshit. You literally pay for Redzone so you get every game without commercials. So I was like ok well maybe ESPN+ will be worth it but thats also 30 fucking dollars a MONTH. Honestly I dont know who is making decisions over there but burn them. Public execution. Theyre a fucking asshole. And I mean that.

Anyway, we get football Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday. We are so back. We are ice cold in our college picks. But lets get into the NFL picks.

Game-by-Game Pick Breakdowns

Cowboys vs Eagles — Over 47.5

Two offenses loaded with red-zone finishers and fourth-down aggression. I do like the Eagles to put up a bunch of points and then this got backdoor cover with some Cowboys garbage time points to bring it closer then it should have been. Turnovers are points’ best friend; both defenses hunt the ball, which also shortens fields. At the end of the day the Cowboys defense will just let them down. Also George Pickens gets at least one personal foul.

Chargers — +3.5

The Chiefs played every game super fucking close last year and barely found a way to win constantly. The Chargers are a run the ball and play defense team. Harbaugh loves taking all the points he can so hes going to at least keep this one close.

Patriots — -2.5

Raiders are going to have to fly cross country to play a game at New England in Mike Vrables home opener. I think the improved Patriots defense shuts down the bad Raiders offense that just had one of their top WRs in Amare Cooper retire just cause? This may have been my lock of the week but theres a team that I think wins big thats a dog this week.

Steelers vs Jets — Under 38.5

The Jets offense is ass. The Steelers offense is also probably ass. Both defensive coaches with solid defenses. Both want to run the ball. Arthur Smith. Take the under.

Dolphins — +1.5

You want me to believe in Dan Jones? The Dolphins have had a loud offseason and Mike McDaniels seat is hot. Honestly though who believes in the Colts though? Dolphins are built in speed even though Achane goes down in this one and we see how slept on Ollie Gordon was in the draft.

Bengals vs Browns — Over 48.5

After looking at the Bengals defensive depth chart I dont think theyre as bad as I thought. I still think its going to take some guys who held out some time to get up to speed though. Bengals are going to get into the 30s on this one. Browns are going to make some mistakes for some quick points and then get some garbage time points against a defense who also is not very good.

Panthers — +3.5 and Over 46.5

The Jags have so many unknowns so I am not sure what to think of them. I dont think their defense is very good regardless though. I do think the Panthers showed life at the end of the year though. I added the over while writing this so its not in the table but were taking the over in this one and I actually like the Panthers to win.

Cardinals — -6.5

Saints are ass. Spencer Rattler got sat last year. I dont think the Cardinals are the best but they can score and I think the Saints will have trouble just completing passes. Dont love it but Cards.

49ers — -2.5

I think this one is a reminder that the 49ers are a good team. Last year a lot of bad happened to them and I think everyone forgot that they were in the Super Bowl two years ago. CMC runs wild. 9ers win big.

Lions — +1.5

Explain to me this Packer hype. Cause I dont fucking get it. I may be able to dust off the cleats and play some corner for the Packers. The Lions biggest losses were 2 offensive interior lineman. One was replaced by a second round rookie. One was replaced by a guy that played lights out last year when he was in. Explain how the team that couldnt beat the Lions last year and probably is worse is going to beat them this year. Keep sleeping on the Lions.

Texans — +3.5

This one I think is very close and I think the Texans have a real shot to win this. The Rams are a house of cards built on 40 year old Matthew Staffords broken back. I am not sure how long he will hold up. Houstons pass rush will be sure to get after him. I think worst case this ones kept close.

Bills vs Ravens — Bills +1.5 & Over 50.5

I just love the Bills at home at night. Both defenses are good, but with these two quarterbacks it doesnt even matter. Lets party.

Lock of the Week

Detroit Lions +1.5
Lions win this game. This team covered all year last year. They are slept on this year. They are better at every position. Its a deep well built team starting the year healthy. Its the Lions year.

Chaos Parlay (+864)

Lions ML • Texans ML • Bills ML
These are all teams that are dogs that I think will win. Its not as chaotic as the college one, but will give you good odds.

Overall Record

NFL Season Record (YTD): 0–0

Unit size: 1u unless otherwise noted. “Lock” = my favorite number on the board, not a guarantee.  

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